The default in eCommerce is failure (and what to do about it)

Here's an uncomfortable truth: 98% of website visitors don't make a purchase.

Not because your site is broken. Not because your prices are wrong. Not because your marketing failed.

They don't buy because not buying is the default state.

According to IRP Commerce data, the average eCommerce conversion rate in 2024 sits at just 1.65%. That represents a 16% decrease from the previous year. Even top-performing categories rarely break 6%.

This isn't pessimism. Recognizing this reality is the first step toward smarter eCommerce CRO.

The problem with "fixing" conversions

Most retail teams approach discounts and promotions from the wrong direction. They see a 2% conversion rate and think, 'How do we get more people to convert?'

They deploy blanket discounts, site-wide sales, and pop-ups, believing that more incentives bring more conversions.

But research from BCG found that 30-40% of retail promotions are either inefficient or unprofitable. They're not just failing to help. They're actively hurting margins.

Why? Blanket promotions treat every visitor the same. They give 10% off to the bargain hunter who was never going to pay full price, AND to the loyal customer who had already decided to buy.

One of those discounts changed behaviour. The other just gave away the margin.

(And if you're doing it across your entire site, you're doing a lot of the second.)

Start from failure

What if you started from the assumption that nobody would buy?

Instead of asking, "How do we convert more visitors?" ask, "Which specific visitors might convert if we removed a specific barrier?"

This reframe changes everything about optimization.

It shifts the focus from promotional intensity to precision; who to incentivize and when.

The 98% is made up of different people

Within that 98% of non-buyers, you'll find:

• Visitors who were never going to buy today (just browsing, wrong product, wrong timing)
• Visitors who need a small push (price-sensitive, comparing options, on the fence)
• Visitors who would've bought anyway if you hadn't interrupted them

The mistake is treating all three groups identically.

The first group? No discount will change their mind, you're just training them to expect promotions next time.

The second group? A timely offer might convert them.

The third group? Leave them alone. Or worse, showing them a discount might actually create doubt where none existed.

The same BCG study found that 60% of consumers prefer more relevant promotions instead of just more promotions. Personalization isn't just better for your margins—it's what customers actually want.

Four things precision promotions can do

When you accept that failure is the default, you can use targeted offers to achieve specific business outcomes rather than just "more sales."

Increase conversions without losing margin. Identify visitors truly on the fence and address their barrier. A price comparer might need a discount. Someone worried about fit might want free returns. Those in a rush may want fast shipping.

Increase revenue per customer. With cart abandonment rates at over 70% according to Baymard Institute, there is a significant opportunity to recover sales and increase basket value. However, "spend more, save more" works better when shown to someone who has already demonstrated an intent to purchase.

Manage stock and inventory. Got products that need moving? You don't need to discount your entire category. Target customers who've browsed similar items with specific offers on the stock you need to shift.

Optimize promotion spend. When every offer is targeted, you can measure what's actually working. Control groups and incrementality testing become possible. You stop guessing and start knowing.

Precision beats intensity

Modern eCommerce platforms give you data on visitor behaviour. Are you using it?

Most promotional strategies employ a broadcast model: show everyone the same offer and hope for conversions.

But when the default is failure, broadcast doesn't make sense. You're spending margin on visitors who either won't convert regardless, or would have converted anyway.

The retailers seeing the best results aren't the ones with the most aggressive discounts. They're the ones who've accepted that most visitors won't buy, and focused their promotional budget on the small percentage where a well-timed offer actually changes the outcome.

That means:

• Identifying which visitors are genuinely on the fence
• Understanding what barrier is actually stopping them
• Delivering a targeted offer that addresses that specific barrier
• And leaving everyone else alone

The bottom line

98% failure isn't a problem to fix with bigger discounts.

It's a reality that demands precision.

Precision wins. Offer relevant, timely promotions to those most likely to convert, not everyone. This delivers the experience customers want and protects your margins as you improve conversions.

Start by accepting that most visitors won't purchase. Prioritize finding, understanding, and targeting those visitors who can be motivated to take action with tailored offers. Doing so is how you overcome the default of low conversion and achieve sustainable growth in eCommerce.